Can Sensex hit the 65,000 mark in the current rally?
In a sharp reversal from June lows, the frontline Sensex and Nifty indices have rallied around 16% each.
After touching a four-month high last week and reclaiming the 60,000 level, the Sensex pulled back by 650 points on Friday, as investors exercised caution. The Nifty came close to 18,000 during the week but closed near 17,700.
The recovery in the last few weeks has been led by a U-turn in foreign outflows, and expectations of a slowdown in rate hike cycles amid declining commodity prices.However, analysts warn that any possible long-term rally will still witness bouts of volatility.
Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management says moderation in US, India inflation lent strength to equities. It suggests central banks may slow rate hikes. However, central bank policies will not be soft. This can put pressure on markets.
Sharing similar views, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services says, “The market momentum is likely to face some headwinds from now on. With the sudden sharp spike in the dollar index to 107.6 level, consistent FII buying may also lose steam. Some profit booking and diversion of money to fixed income may be considered as a short-term strategy” – VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services
That said, going by technical charts, the benchmark indices look bullish over the medium term.
Avdhut Bagkar of Business Standard says current sentiment remains bullish. Sensex, Nifty have crossed 61.80% Fibonnaci retracement. Sensex above two big crucial levels of 58,500 and 59,800. Sensex can hit 65,000 in the short-to-medium term. Nifty trendline breakout emerged at 17,800; can hit 19,000 mark.
Today, markets will track global peers, foreign inflow trajectory and oil prices for direction. Besides, later in the week, airport service aggregator Dreamfolks Services’ initial public offer will open for subscription on Wednesday.